The All-Star version of Trevor Rogers is long gone

[Kevin Barral]

After a strong 2021, the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up has seen his career go downhill. What's been going wrong for Trevor Rogers and what can be done?

Through eight starts this season, Trevor Rogers has posted a 6.57 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 7.54 K/9 and 4.14 BB/9. These are all career worsts for the 26-year-old as he goes into Detroit on Wednesday afternoon looking to rebound.

In his previous outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, Rogers allowed a season-high nine hits and didn't even complete the fourth inning. The Marlins have lost every time he's taken the mound in 2024 and the struggles are clearly getting to him.

Rogers originally reached the big leagues in 2020, then emerged as a promising starting pitcher in 2021. Three years later, he doesn't look anything like the rookie version of himself.

The most obvious difference is his velocity. In 2021, Rogers' four-seam fastball averaged 94.5 mph and was his most-used pitch. In 2024, Rogers' four-seam fastball sits at 92.0 mph, the lowest of his career. It continues to be his most-used pitch, but the results have fallen off a lot. Per Baseball Savant, it's gone from being among MLB's top four-seamers with a plus-16 run value to being a below-average weapon (minus-3 run value).

Rogers dominated as a rookie with his four-seam/changeup combo in part because of the large separation in velo between the pitches (9.7 mph gap). However, that gap is only 6.1 mph this season, leading to much less swing-and-miss on the change.

Rogers has tried to expand his pitch mix with a sinker. He now uses it 21.1% of the time and it's part of his approach to both lefties and righties. It is not working out, unfortunately. His sinker ranks last in his arsenal in PutAway%, Whiff% and batting average against (.344 BA).

Durability has been an issue for the Marlins lefty. Injuries interrupted each of his last three seasons and limited him to only 18 innings pitched at the major league level in 2023.

There is also the question of his stamina during starts. In 2021, Rogers completed six innings of work or more nine times. Since then, he has completed six innings or more only six times. A lot of it has to do with the adjustments that opponents make once they get multiple looks at him. The first time through the order, hitters are slashing .258/.306/.470/.775. The second time through the order, hitters have an OPS of .927, and if he makes it to the third time through the order, hitters have a 1.234 OPS. In 2024, Rogers has yet to complete six innings.

In 2021, only 5.0% of fly balls against Rogers went for home runs—that rate was lower than any qualified MLB starter. He hasn't been able to replicate that magic. Looking at 2024, his HR/FB rate is at 13.2%. He's allowed five home runs this season, only one away from tying his 2021 total.

 

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It's hard to just give up on Trevor Rogers, especially for a rebuilding team like the Marlins. He once showed that he had the chance to become of the best pitchers in baseball. With several members of the team's projected starting rotation on the injured list, there is nothing to lose by seeing what he can do.

That being said, expectations for Rogers must be lowered. With reduced velo and an inability to go deep into games, he'll need to command his pitches better or consider a new role in the bullpen (following in the footsteps of Bryan Hoeing, for example).

Maybe Wednesday's start against the Detroit Tigers can be a turning point for Rogers. This is a matchup where he should have the advantage given the ballpark he will be pitching in and how thin the Tigers lineup is.

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