Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto finally made his MLB debut at age 26 with the Astros before being traded to the Fish at the trade deadline for Jesus Sanchez. The results were less than fantastic, putting up a 5.67 ERA in 101.2 IP.
Gusto's main appeal is his 4seam fastball and his overall repertoire consisting of 6 total pitches. His 4 seam fastball (sitting 94) is his best pitch in both shape and command but it just isn't good enough to be used 45% of the time while none of his other pitches are quality enough to garner a usage rate over 15%.
The two potential tweaks I can see making him showcase this Spring are a bump in velo and the development of a gyro slider to help against LHH. Producing above average velo on his already plus would give Gusto a really building block to build upon allowing for his changeup and potentially new slider to play off the heater more effectively. If Gusto wants a chance to grab and hold onto a rotation spot he will need to make changes and improvements to his game and these feel plausible and achievable.
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks was a very nice success story for the '25 Fish. As a rule 5 pick without any AAA experience it was in doubt if he would spend enough time with the Marlins big league club to complete the Rule 5 process. Hicks staked his claim and slashed .247/.346/.346 98 wRC+ in his rookie season to produce a respectable 1.0 fWAR.
However, Hicks is competing for a spot in one of the most competitive catching rooms in MLB. With former top 100 prospect Agustin Ramirez already ahead of him and current top 50 prospect Joe Mack breathing down his neck, Hicks will have to make improvements both offensively and defensively in 2026 in order to keep his roster spot for as long as possible.
Hicks' carrying tools are without a doubt his bat to ball abilities and plate discipline. Boasting a beautiful combination of a 17.9 Chase% and a 92.5 Zone Contact%. Hicks lead all catchers with 300+ plate appearances in both categories. That said, he needs to do a lot more damage to the baseball going forward, his 27.7 Hard Hit rate and 84.6 MPH average exit velocity were both bottom 5th percentile for MLB hitters. Hicks' defensive game is also well rounded with one fatal flaw. He was about average in both blocking and framing as a rookie but his abysmal 2.00 pop time caused him to have a -4 CS above average according to Baseball Savant.
The fix seems simple, just get him in the gym! If Hicks stayed focused on becoming a better rotational athlete this winter we could be witnessing a true breakout of a "Does nothing poorly" catcher. With the looming threats of top prospects Hicks needs to showcase himself to both the Marlins front office but to every catcher needy team in MLB and prove himself to be a super high floor option behind the dish
Josh Simpson
Josh Simpson holds the title for the Marlin with the biggest discrepancy in fan perception and front office perception. You cannot blame fans for souring on him in his 30.2 MLB innings however. Simpson posted a gut wrenching 7.34 ERA and 5.35 FIP. Under the hood is where the magic lies, Simpson's sweeper is one of the best in baseball. Finishing with a .247 xSLG against and 40.3 whiff%. You can see why the front office is so confident in him!
First and foremost if Simpson wants to have any MLB success he needs to cut down on his walk rate, you can't make a living on the biggest stage if you're walking 14.6% of batters. The tangible adjustment he needs to make is dumping the sinker and commit to the 4seam. The challenging part, is that the sinker does grade out as the better pitch on FanGraphs' stuff+ model. The 108 stuff+ on the sinker and 89 stuff+ on the 4seam would suggest the sinker is the far superior pitch, however in real games the 4seam has produced a .266 xwOBAA and 26.3 whiff% vs the sinker's .471 xwOBAA and 8.9 whiff%
If we only include Simpson's 4seam, Sweeper and Curveball Simpson's stats look elite. with a .262 xwOBAA and a 33.3 whiff%. Simpson just needs to stop throwing bad pitches and throw his good ones for strikes and he will have a very good chance of breaking out this season.
Maximo Acosta
Maximo Acosta is yet another Bendix trade acquisition. Acosta was the headliner in the Jake Burger trade last offseason. Coming off a '24 campaign where he finally looked to be stepping into his big ticket IFA status, Bendix decided that he was a piece he needed to have. In his first year with the Marlins he slashed .224/.314/.366 for an 87 wRC+. The main characteristic of Acosta's game last year was his passiveness. While cutting down on swing% was a system wide trend Acosta took it to an extreme by only swinging at 40.8% of pitches. This passiveness kept him trapped in pitchers counts.
While the bat was disappointing, he still flashed as a good SS defender and even got a taste of 3B in his MLB cup of coffee where I think his future home will be. Acosta also swiped 33 bags while in AAA. So we know the ancillary tools are there to round out his game and now we're waiting for the bat to come along
Acosta also has merits in the box. His 83.3 Zone Contact%, 34.4 SweetSpot% and 91.7 EV50 were all above AAA average. Acosta's path to becoming a big league regular is simple. Be more aggressive on early and develop a little more strength took take advantage of gap to gap contact style. While many publications are writing him off after last year I'm a believer and am fully confident in him cementing his role as an everyday regular on the left side of the infield.
Noble Meyer
Marlins 2023 1st round pick Noble Meyer seemed to be the next big Marlins pitching prospect out of the draft. Tagged with plus velo and plus stuff from scouts everything seemed safe in the always volatile demographic of high school pitchers. Luckily for the Marlins they drafted now MLB's #22 prospect and #1 LHP prospect Thomas White with their very next pick. While White is reaching superstar prospect status Meyer has ben spinning his wheels ever since he reached A+. Seemingly everything has regressed with Meyer, from velo in the low 90s to a elevated walk rates he just doesn't seem to be the guy he was billed to be. There is a beacon of hope! In a recent X post Noble showed a singular throw in which he clocked in at 98.6 MPH! With Driveline's Kyle Boddy's seal of approval vowing that the young arm will not be sitting 92 this year all signs point up for Noble and the Marlins staff.
Unfortunately Noble was not extended an invite to major league spring training this year so we will have to wait until the MiLB season starts in early April to get a real look at the kid and the adjustments he's made in the offseason. No matter how much stock you put into one throw from the middle of the offseason it's hard to contain excitement when it seems that a talented 20 year old first round pick seems to be bouncing back from hard times
Marlins receive: OF Jo Adell
Angels receive: 3B/DH Jacob Berry (MIA #21 prospect) and RHP Josh White
Jo Adell gives the Marlins a super high upside project for the new MLB staff to work with. Adell is coming off a 90 wRC+ 0.1 fWAR season in 130 games but a heap of mental errors and unluckiness on batted balls ( .317 xwOBA vs .296 wOBA) brought his production down in 2024. But he was been progressing his game throughout his MLB career and has 3 more years of club control.
Berry while starting to finally looked like the #6 overall pick that he was selected to be still lacks true upside due to his lack of overall power and abysmal defense. White is coming off a strong 3.02 ERA season mostly as a reliver at the A+ he is nothing more than a sweetener in this deal.
Marlins receive: RHP Jaden Hamm (DET #7 prospect), 2B Max Anderson (DET #17 prospect)
Tigers receive: LHP Braxton Garrett
The MLB pitching market appears to be scorching hot with Montas and Boyd getting bloated deals. The Marlins should take advantage of this. Unfortunately this means parting ways with a former first round pick, But they have the depth especially for an inbetween year to look ahead to the future
Hamm is coming off an electric 2.64 ERA campaign over 99 IP at the A+ level. He boasts an elctric fastball that sits low to mid 90s with insane ride that carried him to one of the best K%-BB% at the A+ level last year. Anderson is a solid "just put the ball in play" that can hopefully fill some organizational depth and maybe become an MLB bench bat
Marlins receive: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (BOS #12 prospect) and OF Allan Castro (BOS #19 prospect)
Red Sox receive: RHP Edward Cabrera and RHP Anthony Bender
Jhostynxon 'The Password' Garcia is coming off a super strong .892 OPS season between A, A+ and AA. Although his walk rate outside of A ball leaves a lot to be desired (5.1 BB%) he makes up for this by swinging early and often and makes consistent quality contact while elevating and looks to be an intriguing addition to a future MLB OF. Allan Castro is almost the opposite; he lacks Garcia's raw tools he makes up for it with a sparkling 14 BB% and 14 homers.
For Edward Cabrera, frustration after years of noty being able to locate the zone has warranted letting another team take a chance on a super high upside arm. He could also benefit a lot from thier heavy sinker philosiphy. His sinker out performed his 4seam by .038 xwOBA and gave up 6 HRs on the 4seam vs only 1 on the sinker. Bender has been an above average RP for a couple years with the Marlins but to take a chance at a future starting corner OF, it's worth the value
Marlins receive: RHP Jaxon Wiggins (CHC #10 prospect) and OF Jonathon Long (CHC #28 prospect)
Cubs receive: RHP Calvin Faucher
Calvin Faucher after being attached in the Vidal Brujan trade now looks like the center piece. He posted a spectacular 3.19 ERA and 2.50 FIP as well as becoming the defacto closer post deadline. However, relievers are replacble and I don't believe the team is ready to compete yet so we're going to sell high on a stellar late inning arm.
In return the Fish will get a hard throwing pitcher who struggles to find the zone at times in Jaxon Wiggins and a super underrated bat in Jonathon Long. Wiggins despite control issues posted 28.0K% and .194 BAA. At the very least his heater and slider should allow him to fill in the 'pen if he fails to stick as a starter. Long is a bat only prospect to put it bluntly. Due to his 30 grade speed and 5'11 stature he's an awkward fit for anywhere on the diamond but at the plate he slashed .283/.391/461 for a 149 wRC+ between A+ and AA. The key components to his success offensively are his plate discipline (14.1 BB%) and his power (17 HR and 38 XBH) in in a 489 PA sample size
Marlins recevie: RHP Gavin Williams
Guardians receive: OF Victor Mesa Jr and RHP Juan De La Cruz
Gavin Williams will be a solid answer to be in the backend of the rotation while it recovers from the hit it would take in this exercise after Cabrera and Garrett are gone. He's a solid 4 currently with possible upside of a low end 3. For us he will be the backend guy to provide consistant starts. While VMJ is a long time marlins fan favorite prospect due to his +glove and speed I'm not sure how his game will translate to the next level since he struggles so much agasinst velo. Juan De La Cruz is a semi-interesting lower level prospect with some interesting characteristics that Cleaveland may like
