LuckBuck

The 2026 Miami Marlins have thus far exceeded expectations set by the media and cautiously optimistic fans alike. They sit at 60-59 and 3.5 GB of the wild card. The Fish have found themselves here by being a very well rounded team designed to win close games. The production backs this up and even suggests they could be doing even better, they rank 9th in overall team fWAR with 27.2 fWAR. They've accomplished these totals with a balanced attack and a team full of contributors. 13 players have broke the 1 fWAR benchmark this season, however after perusing the roster it become obvious that the team only has 1 offensive player performing at a star player that being Otto Lopez a 2024 waiver claimm by POBO Peter Bendix. Unfortunately Otto Lopez' offensive production looks primed for regression with a .348 BABIP and xwOBA-wOBA of 0.29. Without this production moving forwards the Marlins will be without a star, so let's turn to the farm to see if there are any to save them in future seasons
 
 
1. Brandon Compton
 
Brandon Compton was the Marlins 2nd round pick (46th overall) in the 2025 MLB draft. In his first season of pro ball Compton has slashed .267/.423/.567 for a 156 wRC+ in 92 games split between A+ and AA. Compton boasts true prodigious power form the left side. With 27 home runs, 14 of which have come since the start of July. While Compton's power upside is apparent he has some questions about how his game will play at the MLB level. Compton's swing and miss concerns are the biggest red flag in his profile. On the season he has a 32.6 K% and 58.3 contact%. On the bright side Compton's K% has been steadily going down while the contact% has been rising as the season has gone along. Since the Jump from A+ to AA Compton's K% has fallen from 35.0% down to 29.5% and his contact rate has jumped from 56.5% to 62.3% while the new numbers are still below average, he continues to make strides. His brightest stretch in double from a plate disciple perspective has taken place over his last 13 games with a 20 K% and 62.8% while posting a 1.277 OPS with 9 extra base hits. Showing that he continues to improve and learn how to best optimize his tools
 
Compton stands as the highest potential bat in the Marlins system whom has climbed to the high minors while producing at an elite level with some unfortunate major red flags. His franchise altering power potential is what the Marlins are desperate for and his willingness to adapt his approach and get better as he faces more challenging levels makes him a potential him for answer for the Marlins within the next two seasons
 
 
2. Aiva Arquette
 
Aiva Arquette was the Marlins 1st round pick and 7th overall in the 2025 draft. Arquette has slashed .240/.297/.462 with a 93 wRC+ in 41 games between A+ and AA. While the production isn't pretty he does have 9 homers, 7 of which came in his 27 AA games. Arquette started his season late after offseason abdominal surgery, and a more recent thumb injury (Arquette is scheduled to return to action this week). Arquette's game is noted by current upside with projection on his hit tool as he learns to shape his swing that as been described as very whiffleball-esque. Arquette has already flashed his raw power with a 113.1 MaxEV and 107.3 EV90. If Arquette is going to answer the Marlins' call for a star and live up to his own billing as the 7th overall pick he's going to have to learn how to waste less of his batted balls and be willing to walk more. While Arquette posted an immense 25.9 HR/FB ratio he also had a astronomical 25.9% infield fly ball rate partnered with a 46.7 GB% which lends to his .214 BABIP is more than just plain bad luck.
 
The path forward for Aiva's ascent is clear. While he currently plays most of his games at SS the Marlins already have the aforementioned Otto Lopez manning the position and having a glaring hole at 3B which may be a more natural fit for the 6'5 infielder. Arquette has also flashed his own ability to adapt and improve in areas of concern as he gets more entrenched in the season despite the advancement in level. During his A+ stint his 27.0 K% and 2 homers left a lot to be desired from such a prospect he slashed the K rate down to 18.0% and converted more of his XBHs into home runs. Once again showing the new Marlins player development team is able to better prep talented players into potential big leaguers.
 
 
3. Kemp Alderman
 
Kemp Alderman (2nd round pick in the 2023 draft) was the Marlin's 2025 MiLB player of the year after a great year mostly spent at AA. So far this season Alderman has slashed .277/.355/.479 for a 118 wRC+ in 76 AAA games. Kemp Alderman's follow up season to his '25 breakout has been solid but slightly underwhelming, with "only" 15 homers on the season and a K% that has spiked to 31.4%. Alderman flashes a high floor for his batted ball profile with a solid combo of sharp grounders and line drives while still going yard a good amount. Alderman continues to flash his the elite raw power that got him selected in the 2nd round with 99th percentile average EV(94.1 MPH), EV90 (109.4), barrel% (15.3%) and hard hit% (58.0%). 
 
Alderman defensively has been a corner outfielder, he has recently begun cross training at 1B. While the Marlins don't have a need a 1B or in the corner outfield spots defensively, they do need a right handed hitting power bat than can help the balance out the lineup and help rotate players like Stowers, Conine and Caissie to help the team become more versatile against all competition. I do not believe Kemp Alderman's current approach is that of a star hitter, I do feel that the floor to his game is underrated while fitting an offensive need with upside to become a true power threat in the future with continued development and a tweak to his approach
 
 
4. Dillon Lewis
 
 
Lewis arrived in the Marlins org after SP Ryan Weathers was traded to the Yankees in the most recent offseason. In his first season with his new team Lewis has slashed .240/.315/.512 for a 112 wRC+. Lewis presents the most well rounded profile in all areas of the game. Lewis set the Pensacola Blue Wahoos franchise record for the hitting 10 home runs accomplishing the feat by May 20th, over 2 weeks sooner than the previous holder. In the 66 games he's played this season Lewis has hit 17 homers, swiped 14 bags while providing solid CF defense. As with most young power hitters Lewis has had K problems, his 31.5 K% is much higher than the standard he set last year with a 23.5 K% in A and A+.
 
Dillon Lewis does match up well with the Marlins current time line as a CF and fits the the desire for more power in the lineup he will have to compete with other CF options the Fish currently have with a OBP machine in Jakob Marsee and contact and speed type in Cam Cannarella. Both of whom are at higher levels than Lewis. While Dillon Lewis has some of the most raw tools at the Marlins upper levels he will need to improve on his K problem and show that he can become useful to the Marlins at all 3 phases if he his going to find himself as a big league contributor.
 
 
Santiago Solarte
 
 
Solarte was a big ticket signing for the Marlins in the 2026 IFA class making him the youngest players on this list by far at only 17 years old. Solarte posses the most twitchy game in the entire Marlins system. Solarte stands out in both power and speed metrics, being 1 of 3 DSL players with double digit homers and 5th in the DSL in stolen bases with 39 in just 49 games. Solarte is yet another case of a Marlins power hitter improving his overall game as the season has gone along, over his last 27 games he is slashing .352/.459/.670 for a 162 wRC+ with only a 23.9 K%. Solarte has drawn early comps to other freaks of nature like Elly De La Cruz.
 
While Solarte isn't projected to debut until 2031 he has the makings of a potential face of the franchise player who could be the next generation's Hanley Ramirez. It will be a long road while we figure out how Solarte projects moving forwards he is everything you could want out a player at this stage in their career

Ryan Gusto
Ryan Gusto finally made his MLB debut at age 26 with the Astros before being traded to the Fish at the trade deadline for Jesus Sanchez. The results were less than fantastic, putting up a 5.67 ERA in 101.2 IP.
Gusto's main appeal is his 4seam fastball and his overall repertoire consisting of 6 total pitches. His 4 seam fastball (sitting 94) is his best pitch in both shape and command but it just isn't good enough to be used 45% of the time while none of his other pitches are quality enough to garner a usage rate over 15%. 
The two potential tweaks I can see making him showcase this Spring are a bump in velo and the development of a gyro slider to help against LHH. Producing above average velo on his already plus would give Gusto a really building block to build upon allowing for his changeup and potentially new slider to play off the heater more effectively. If Gusto wants a chance to grab and hold onto a rotation spot he will need to make changes and improvements to his game and these feel plausible and achievable.
 
 
 
Liam Hicks
Liam Hicks was a very nice success story for the '25 Fish. As a rule 5 pick without any AAA experience it was in doubt if he would spend enough time with the Marlins big league club to complete the Rule 5 process. Hicks staked his claim and slashed .247/.346/.346 98 wRC+ in his rookie season to produce a respectable 1.0 fWAR.
However, Hicks is competing for a spot in one of the most competitive catching rooms in MLB. With former top 100 prospect Agustin Ramirez already ahead of him and current top 50 prospect Joe Mack breathing down his neck, Hicks will have to make improvements both offensively and defensively in 2026 in order to keep his roster spot for as long as possible.
Hicks' carrying tools are without a doubt his bat to ball abilities and plate discipline. Boasting a beautiful combination of a 17.9 Chase% and a 92.5 Zone Contact%. Hicks lead all catchers with 300+ plate appearances in both categories. That said, he needs to do a lot more damage to the baseball going forward, his 27.7 Hard Hit rate and 84.6 MPH average exit velocity were both bottom 5th percentile for MLB hitters. Hicks' defensive game is also well rounded with one fatal flaw. He was about average in both blocking and framing as a rookie but his abysmal 2.00 pop time caused him to have a -4 CS above average according to Baseball Savant.
The fix seems simple, just get him in the gym! If Hicks stayed focused on becoming a better rotational athlete this winter we could be witnessing a true breakout of a "Does nothing poorly" catcher. With the looming threats of top prospects Hicks needs to showcase himself to both the Marlins front office but to every catcher needy team in MLB and prove himself to be a super high floor option behind the dish
 
 
 
Josh Simpson
Josh Simpson holds the title for the Marlin with the biggest discrepancy in fan perception and front office perception. You cannot blame fans for souring on him in his 30.2 MLB innings however. Simpson posted a gut wrenching 7.34 ERA and 5.35 FIP. Under the hood is where the magic lies, Simpson's sweeper is one of the best in baseball. Finishing with a .247 xSLG against and 40.3 whiff%. You can see why the front office is so confident in him!
First and foremost if Simpson wants to have any MLB success he needs to cut down on his walk rate, you can't make a living on the biggest stage if you're walking 14.6% of batters. The tangible adjustment he needs to make is dumping the sinker and commit to the 4seam. The challenging part, is that the sinker does grade out as the better pitch on FanGraphs' stuff+ model. The 108 stuff+ on the sinker and 89 stuff+ on the 4seam would suggest the sinker is the far superior pitch, however in real games the 4seam has produced a .266 xwOBAA and 26.3 whiff% vs the sinker's .471 xwOBAA and 8.9 whiff%
If we only include Simpson's 4seam, Sweeper and Curveball Simpson's stats look elite. with a .262 xwOBAA and a 33.3 whiff%. Simpson just needs to stop throwing bad pitches and throw his good ones for strikes and he will have a very good chance of breaking out this season.
 
 
 
Maximo Acosta
Maximo Acosta is yet another Bendix trade acquisition. Acosta was the headliner in the Jake Burger trade last offseason. Coming off a '24 campaign where he finally looked to be stepping into his big ticket IFA status, Bendix decided that he was a piece he needed to have. In his first year with the Marlins he slashed .224/.314/.366 for an 87 wRC+. The main characteristic of Acosta's game last year was his passiveness. While cutting down on swing% was a system wide trend Acosta took it to an extreme by only swinging at 40.8% of pitches. This passiveness kept him trapped in pitchers counts.
While the bat was disappointing, he still flashed as a good SS defender and even got a taste of 3B in his MLB cup of coffee where I think his future home will be. Acosta also swiped 33 bags while in AAA. So we know the ancillary tools are there to round out his game and now we're waiting for the bat to come along
Acosta also has merits in the box. His 83.3 Zone Contact%, 34.4 SweetSpot% and 91.7 EV50 were all above AAA average. Acosta's path to becoming a big league regular is simple. Be more aggressive on early and develop a little more strength took take advantage of gap to gap contact style. While many publications are writing him off after last year I'm a believer and am fully confident in him cementing his role as an everyday regular on the left side of the infield.
 
 
 
Noble Meyer
Marlins 2023 1st round pick Noble Meyer seemed to be the next big Marlins pitching prospect out of the draft. Tagged with plus velo and plus stuff from scouts everything seemed safe in the always volatile demographic of high school pitchers. Luckily for the Marlins they drafted now MLB's #22 prospect and #1 LHP prospect Thomas White with their very next pick. While White is reaching superstar prospect status Meyer has ben spinning his wheels ever since he reached A+. Seemingly everything has regressed with Meyer, from velo in the low 90s to a elevated walk rates he just doesn't seem to be the guy he was billed to be. There is a beacon of hope! In a recent X post Noble showed a singular throw in which he clocked in at 98.6 MPH! With Driveline's Kyle Boddy's seal of approval vowing that the young arm will not be sitting 92 this year all signs point up for Noble and the Marlins staff.
Unfortunately Noble was not extended an invite to major league spring training this year so we will have to wait until the MiLB season starts in early April to get a real look at the kid and the adjustments he's made in the offseason. No matter how much stock you put into one throw from the middle of the offseason it's hard to contain excitement when it seems that a talented 20 year old first round pick seems to be bouncing back from hard times

Marlins receive: OF Jo Adell
Angels receive: 3B/DH Jacob Berry (MIA #21 prospect) and RHP Josh White
 
Jo Adell gives the Marlins a super high upside project for the new MLB staff to work with. Adell is coming off a 90 wRC+ 0.1 fWAR season in 130 games but a heap of mental errors and unluckiness on batted balls ( .317 xwOBA vs .296 wOBA) brought his production down in 2024. But he was been progressing his game throughout his MLB career and has 3 more years of club control.
Berry while starting to finally looked like the #6 overall pick that he was selected to be still lacks true upside due to his lack of overall power and abysmal defense. White is coming off a strong 3.02 ERA season mostly as a reliver at the A+ he is nothing more than a sweetener in this deal.
 
Marlins receive: RHP Jaden Hamm (DET #7 prospect), 2B Max Anderson (DET #17 prospect)
Tigers receive: LHP Braxton Garrett
 
The MLB pitching market appears to be scorching hot with Montas and Boyd getting bloated deals. The Marlins should take advantage of this. Unfortunately this means parting ways with a former first round pick, But they have the depth especially for an inbetween year to look ahead to the future
Hamm is coming off an electric 2.64 ERA campaign over 99 IP at the A+ level. He boasts an elctric fastball that sits low to mid 90s with insane ride that carried him to one of the best K%-BB% at the A+ level last year. Anderson is a solid "just put the ball in play" that can hopefully fill some organizational depth and maybe become an MLB bench bat
 
Marlins receive: OF Jhostynxon Garcia (BOS #12 prospect) and OF Allan Castro (BOS #19 prospect)
Red Sox receive: RHP Edward Cabrera and RHP Anthony Bender
 
Jhostynxon 'The Password' Garcia is coming off a super strong .892 OPS season between A, A+ and AA. Although his walk rate outside of A ball leaves a lot to be desired (5.1 BB%) he makes up for this by swinging early and often and makes consistent quality contact while elevating and looks to be an intriguing addition to a future MLB OF. Allan Castro is almost the opposite; he lacks Garcia's raw tools he makes up for it with a sparkling 14 BB% and 14 homers.
For Edward Cabrera, frustration after years of noty being able to locate the zone has warranted letting another team take a chance on a super high upside arm. He could also benefit a lot from thier heavy sinker philosiphy. His sinker out performed his 4seam by .038 xwOBA and gave up 6 HRs on the 4seam vs only 1 on the sinker. Bender has been an above average RP for a couple years with the Marlins but to take a chance at a future starting corner OF, it's worth the value
 
Marlins receive: RHP Jaxon Wiggins (CHC #10 prospect) and OF Jonathon Long (CHC #28 prospect)
Cubs receive: RHP Calvin Faucher
 
Calvin Faucher after being attached in the Vidal Brujan trade now looks like the center piece. He posted a spectacular 3.19 ERA and 2.50 FIP as well as becoming the defacto closer post deadline. However, relievers are replacble and I don't believe the team is ready to compete yet so we're going to sell high on a stellar late inning arm.
In return the Fish will get a hard throwing pitcher who struggles to find the zone at times in Jaxon Wiggins and a super underrated bat in Jonathon Long. Wiggins despite control issues posted 28.0K% and .194 BAA. At the very least his heater and slider should allow him to fill in the 'pen if he fails to stick as a starter. Long is a bat only prospect to put it bluntly. Due to his 30 grade speed and 5'11 stature he's an awkward fit for anywhere on the diamond but at the plate he slashed .283/.391/461 for a 149 wRC+ between A+ and AA. The key components to his success offensively are his plate discipline (14.1 BB%) and his power (17 HR and 38 XBH) in in a 489 PA sample size
 
Marlins recevie: RHP Gavin Williams
Guardians receive: OF Victor Mesa Jr and RHP Juan De La Cruz
 
Gavin Williams will be a solid answer to be in the backend of the rotation while it recovers from the hit it would take in this exercise after Cabrera and Garrett are gone. He's a solid 4 currently with possible upside of a low end 3. For us he will be the backend guy to provide consistant starts. While VMJ is a long time marlins fan favorite prospect due to his +glove and speed I'm not sure how his game will translate to the next level since he struggles so much agasinst velo. Juan De La Cruz is a semi-interesting lower level prospect with some interesting characteristics that Cleaveland may like