One Regend

Win Now or Later? Marlins Direction Continues to Confound.
By Miller Lepree
Last year, it was all but a certainty that Sandy Alcantara would be packing a bag and kissing the cavernous reverb of a daytime start at Loan Depot Park goodbye. Surely, fans had screamed their last echoes of support toward their longtime ace after he turned his season around and salvaged some trade value. Whispers of yet another deadline as sellers turned into proclamations. Eddy Cabrera was as good as gone, too. But then they stood pat, and nobody moved, aside from longtime underachiever Jesus Sanchez. They were trying to win. Or they didn’t get any offer they agreed with. Fine! So, they missed the playoffs but remained interesting. Perhaps this was an indication that they viewed their resurgent squad as “knocking on the door” or insert platitude about young team close to competing.
The offseason presented a different outlook: Cabrera was famously dealt for Owen Caissie and two other prospects. Caissie being viewed as big league ready did little to dampen fans’ expectations that this team would be expected to win, and soon, if not now. But then Ryan Weathers was traded for lower minors’ prospects. Ok. So, a win-now-ish move combined with a win-later move. That’s fine, that’s how this whole analytical approach works. Keep the farm stocked. Minor leaguers are dirt cheap. The team must capitalize on player value to ride the razor thin edge of winning and losing in this league. Weathers had value, but the team didn’t trust him. So, he’s gone for guys who can help way later.
The team famously did not sign any major league free agents until bringing in Christopher Morel, followed by marquee addition Chris Paddack on the heels of spring training. Money, meet mouth. They didn’t want to rush any prospects into starting roles, and Paddack was an indication that they were at least trying to put a serviceable big-league product out there for the first few months of the season. As of this writing on May 13th, he and his fellow major league free agent addition, Austin Slater, are no longer with the team.
They both hurt the team, and so the team ate the dead money and moved on. Some view this as “urgency” or a signal that perhaps Peter Bendix is feeling the pressure to win and will not waste time on players who are blocking someone younger, cheaper, more interesting. But the money is already spent on those guys.
In my opinion, it’s more a reflection of the paralysis this team faces within their current model: there has been no significant financial investment in any proven big-league talent since Peter Bendix took over. No extension, no real signings. Bruce Sherman's instructions are clear: win cheap. Paddack and Slater join the storied ranks of Tim Anderson, Christian Bethancourt, and Vidal Brujan. Dead weight signings only made to fill out the roster while they continue to audition young players.
Another bit of contradictory logic emerged recently with the mishandling of Augustin Ramirez resulting in his demotion to AAA in favor of the sure-handed Joe Mack.
Fans and analysts agree that Ramirez has no hope as a catcher. But the team insists he is one, and that he is going back to AAA to get better at catching and rediscover his power stroke. All while calling pitches from the dugout. It’s a frustrating ordeal to watch but perhaps will sort itself out. Maybe they'll deal him for a second baseman to replace Xavier Edwards, who is becoming expensive. Better options have emerged at both the first base and catching front, with the breakout of Liam Hicks. So, is Ramirez now expendable?
Something to keep in mind is that under the current model, any one player matters little. Every deadline, there will likely be some form of subtraction, perhaps coupled with a needed addition during the fatter years. Bendix will continue churning the roster, seeking bargain bin finds, and promoting from within. There will be no Albert Pujols. And that is likely for the best.
Nonetheless, the margin for error is credit-card thin when you consistently rely on hitting where the other 29 teams have missed.  For every Otto Lopez, there is a Christopher Morel.
Is this team ready to compete? Short answer, maybe. Long answer? Check the receipts.

The Leading Moments to the Sherman era
After decades of being renowned as possibly THE worst owner in MLB after sinking baseball in 2 cities and 2 different countries (Miami and Montreal) Jeffery Loria finally decided he had enough of dealing with a begrudged fanbase and a running in place baseball team, he made the decision that lit a spark in all south Florida baseball fans' eyes. He decided to sell the team. During the process there became two front runners: Jorge Mas and Bruce Sherman. Jorge Mas was an eccentric billionaire who had already had his hands in Miami Sports. Sherman was the gritty half billionaire that had two aces up his sleeve. An at the time future HoF SS in Derek Jeter and an extra $30 Million dollars he was willing to to throw down to purchase the team.
On the 2nd of October 2017 the deal was done and the ink was set to dry. Bruce Sherman had become the next owner of the Miami Marlins. When he arrived both he and Jeter were barraged with questions over why and how they would be able to right the ship of a lost at sea franchise. The moniker of the regime quicky became that this isn't a rebuild, we're building this team and it'll be done through waves and waves of talent that will surface through the farm system.
 
The Opening Moves
In his first offseason with the team with Jeter in charge of baseball operations was to trade current MLB stars for prospects hand selected by Jeter himself. This was originally met with controversy from the fans and media because it appeared to be just another fire sale in which the Marlins are practically synonymous with, but we were reassured that this will be the right move. The real controversy was after the players had become aware of Derek Jeter's plans. The stars of the team became openly frustrated with the situation which ultimately lead to all 4 of our young superstars to be dealt in the next 16 months, 3 of which would take place in this 2017 offseason.
The new regimes first offseason resulted in trading reigning MVP Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees for 2B Starlin Castro, INF prospect Jose Devers, and pitching prospect Jorge Guzman. Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals for SP Sandy Alcantara, SP Zac Gallen, CF Magneuris Sierra, SP Daniel Castano. Christian Yelich to the Brewers for CF Lewis Brinson, CF Monte Harrison, INF Isan Diaz SP Jordan Yamamoto, Dee Gordon and IFA money to the Mariners for SP Nick Neidert, SP Robert Duggar, INF Christopher Torres and I saved the first trade for last SP prospect Michael King and IFA money for 1B Garrett Cooper and SP Caleb Smith.
This offseason really set the stage and the future did seem bright. Many of the prospects like Lewis Brinson and Sandy Alcantara were regarded very highly by the national media. It felt like only a matter of time until Miami fans would see good baseball once again.
 
The Fruits Of Their Labor
By the end of the 2019 season the fans had endured 2 more losing seasons with a combined record of 120-203. But that was part of the plan and most fans knew that. But as long as they amassed talent that would be the faces of future teams it seemed worth our time investment. As the 2019 team settled They were praised for becoming one of the most talented minor league systems in baseball.
Let's categorize the prospects based on how they were acquired to get a better understanding in how much the Marlins themselves are responsible for each player's development.
The biggest prospects they traded for were: Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz, Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Jorge Alfaro, Sixto Sanchez, Nick Neidert, Jose Devers. Out of these groups of players only 4 are every day starters, and 2 of them are in the upper crust of the league and 1 of those players was traded in his rookie year for only a good player and not the elite talent that Gallen has become.
Most of these hitting prospects came up with other orgs until they were in the upper minors then all showed very similar flaws when they got to the Marlins and to the MLB level. Swing and miss, Chasing bad pitches and an inability to hit the ball at advantageous angles with power. To trade for eight different players that would grace popular top 100 prospects lists and to only get three players to become roster-able players is un utter embarrassment.
Maybe we can try to give them grace and hope they were just taken advantage of in trades and let's see how the hand selected homegrown talents have turned out.
Since the first draft under the new regime only 4 position players or starting pitchers have been drafted, signed, developed and debuted for the Marlins. That's right! In 6 years of drafts they've only managed to find themselves 4 possible starters for the future. Those 4 being Nick Fortes, JJ Bleday, Peyton Burdick, and Max Meyer.
Fortes has been an intriguing defense only backup catcher, JJ Bleday struggled through out his minor league career and was traded to Oakland where he finally turned the corner, Peyton Burdick has 139 career PA's with a 38.1 K% and Max Meyer is recently recovered from TJ and look more like a middle innings reliever than a future corner stone in the rotation that he was built up to be. 
The international free agency side is probably where the most amount of expanded investment has taken place, with an academy built in the Dominican Republic and more money pumped in to the behind the scenes at the lowest levels of minor league baseball. Their top investments have been in Victor Victor mesa, Victor Mesa Jr, Jose Salas, Yiddi Cappe, Junior Sanchez, Ian Lewis. The only one that looks promising of the group Is Victor Mesa Jr. But they were able to find a crown jewel in the rough in RHP Eury Perez who looks to be one of the top pitchers in baseball at just 22 years old. UTIL Javier Sanoja also looks like a possible MLB caliber player but lacks a true upside that makes him hard to project him to be an everyday player.
 
The Minor League System Overview
Under Jeter/Denbo/Kim one thing became known amongst Marlins fans and the league. The Marlins do not know how to develop hitting at all, and became one of the worst in practically every important metric. As time marched forward every cry you'd hear from Marlins fans were cries for bats. All of the once vaunted prospects had all flamed out and either had been traded or have since retired from baseball or still fighting for their careers outside of affiliated ball. The pitching side of things has seen a decent amount of success with Sandy, Gallen, Lopez, Garrett, Rogers, Perez and Luzardo but very few had been developed at the minor league level with the Marlins.
The most frustrating part was watching almost every highly regarded prospect or fresh draftee slowly fade into irrelevance the longer they spent in the organization. The 2019 draft in particular looked like an absolute slam dunk with Kameron Misner, Peyton Burdick and JD Orr exploding out of the gate and then proceeded to greatly decline and show bigger and bigger flaws in their games as they advanced through the minor leagues. Then the absolutely dreadful part was the excitement for new bats in the system to immediately flop. JJ Bleday, Connor Scott, Joe Mack, Kahlil Watson were all first round picks that either immediately struggled or flashed warning signs of their potential may not have been what it was cracked up to be.
 
The Deficiencies In Team Building
One of my biggest qualms with the organization Pre Peter Bendix was how the assets were managed. The two biggest flaws of how the roster was managed came from their handling of veterans. With few exceptions practically every free agent signing was an absolute bust for the Fish. Corey Dickerson, Avisail Garcia and Jean Segura were all negatives for the team with Garcia and Segura being some of the worst players in baseball in their with the fish.
My other annoyance with the team had been the refusal to trade veterans who had no future with the team. Namely Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar and Starlin Castro, were all held on to for far too long and were either released or traded for very little in return. Good teams realize when a player isn't going to get them any closer to the playoffs or a championship and trade them for younger players that can hopefully be a part of future successful teams. With the only caveat being you have to select the right players and you need to give them the right tools and guidance to become successful MLB players which simply did not happen under the Jeter/NG regimes.
 
The Peter Bendix Era And The Role Analytics Plays In Baseball
From an outsiders perspective many claim that the Marlins threw away a playoff team and new GM Peter Bendix has ran the team into the ground to become one of the worst teams in baseball. While on the surface this is technically true, those of us who have followed the entire organization throughout the the Sherman's ownership have been pointing out signs of rot that have been emanating up and down the Marlins system. The lack of developing hitters and trading away pitchers and prospects to make up for 7 years of failures had left the organization rotting from the inside. There has been no future for a while now and I have been pounding the table for a rebuild for a couple years now and I finally have my wish.
After the first season under Peter Bendix he has also come to the conclusion that this organization needs a complete makeover if they ever want to be a serious competitor. His main goal was to once again trade MLB players for prospects of his choosing. However, this time he did not have a reigning MVP and three superstar hitters to trade away. He was handed down good role players but not a single true star or superstar. Nonetheless he was able to deal 11 MLB players for 20 prospects. While like the previous regime you can see them chasing high upside players with obvious faults like De Los Santos, Jun-Seok Shim many of his new prospects are guys that have made a name for themselves based on good plate discipline, swing decisions and optimal launch angles like Jakob Marsee, Jared Serna and Agustin Ramirez.
The other interesting pattern the ability to acquire decent players for next to nothing. Otto Lopez, Jonah Bride, and Declan Cronin are 3 prime examples of such and they all fall into a similar bucket "Sabermetric Darlings" Otto Lopez is an elite defender with around a league average bat with ++ base running, Jonah Bride is a the perfect example of how pulling flyballs will get you good results and Declan Cronin managed a 2.58 FIP and didn't surrender a homerun until mid September.
Peter has secretly told us some of his thoughts on the previous regime and his own philosophies in a very secretive manner. Throughout his trades and the draft he brought in 29 bats and only 12 arms. It clear that he saw the talent level and protypes of hitters in the org and knew there needed to be a change. He also told us how the actual development process should be ran. He has fired most of the baseball ops employees he inherited and has insisted on getting as many of his own guys in house and as many people in house as he can to help with the development of prospects. As former senior analyst of the Marlins Bradley Woodrum stated there used to be only three people made up the analytics department at one point. He later stated that he believes that Bendix wants there to be about 40. A 13x increase in personnel sounds astonishing until you realize the gap of success that the Rays (Bendix's last team) and the Marlins success at drafting and developing MLB caliber players.
Only time will be able to tell us about how this new experiment will end up, but i for one am supremely confident in Peter Bendix's ability to build an organization and future successful MLB teams.