Louis Addeo-Weiss

The case of Edward Cabrera was, for a while, one of unrealized talent. Cabrera epitomized the "if he could just put it all together" player archetype. He posted a 4.32 ERA through his first four big league seasons with an average of just 73.5 innings pitched, which set up last year's age-27 season to be one of the make-or-break variety. Fortunately, for both Cabrera and the Marlins, the pieces began to fall into place. He shone in a career-high 26 starts and 137 ⅔ innings pitched, finishing with a 3.53 ERA. He was the most impactful arm in their rotation. The Marlins capitalized on that breakout by consummating a trade on Wednesday with the Chicago Cubs to send the hard-throwing right-hander to the North Side. The Marlins received a package of three players, headlined by outfielder Owen Caissie, who was arguably the Cubs' top prospect. Infielders Cristian Hernández and Edgardo De Leon rounded out the return. What will trading Cabrera mean for the rest of the Marlins' offseason? Which outfielder becomes expendable? After cashing in such a valuable trade chip to acquire Caissie, the assumption is that the Marlins envision him being the long-term answer in one of the two corner outfield spots. With Stowers occupying the opposite corner and Jakob Marsee in between them, there's now a surplus of viable outfielders. Heriberto Hernández, a minor league signing before last season, impressed with a 116 OPS+ across 294 plate appearances. Platooning with the aforementioned trio to various extents seems to be the plan. Fellow right-handed bat Esteury Ruiz was just acquired last week. President of baseball operations Peter Bendix described Ruiz as a "really helpful, complementary piece," but his inconsistent track record could leave him on the outside looking in should Caissie break camp with the club. Then, there's the Griffin Conine of it all. Sporting a modest .755 OPS in the majors and flashing plus defense at left and right in a limited 54-game sample, Conine presented a compelling case for regular playing time in 2026. Manager Clayton McCullough previously shared that the Marlins want to evaluate him at first base during spring training. But if that transition isn't a smooth one, where would the 28-year-old fit in moving forward? Meanwhile, Victor Mesa Jr. has no clear path to playing time. Mesa was arguably the top outfielder in the Marlins farm system when Bendix arrived. Now, he's buried on the depth chart with only one minor league option remaining. Will the team add a veteran starter? The trading of Cabrera leaves a vacancy in the Marlins rotation. Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez and Ryan Weathers are certain to open the season with starting jobs (health permitting). Janson Junk made a compelling case to retain his spot, though his track record prior to 2025 was spotty, to say the least. We haven't seen an effective outing from Max Meyer since Memorial Day. While the Marlins also have Braxton Garrett on the mend from elbow surgery and an underrated farm system, the free agent market presents them with potential Cabrera replacements. Nick Martinez, Chris Bassitt and Zac Gallen are among the unsigned options. The Marlins, too, could replace Cabrera's mind-bending changeup with another if they were to add, say, Lucas Giolito. Shoveling a similar workload as Cabrera in his 145 innings pitched, Giolito finished with a 3.41 ERA across his 26 starts. Should owner Bruce Sherman insist on fiscal conservatism, their second-ranked pitching prospect, Robby Snelling boasted a dazzling 2.51 ERA across 136 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His arrival at the major league level need not be delayed any further if the Marlins believe his much-improved fastball quality can be sustained in 2026. What happens with Connor Norby? In 36 games to end 2024, Connor Norby hit .247/.315/.445/.760, with signs that this was just the beginning on a long tenure in Miami. The subsequent year was a frustrating one, as Norby dealt with oblique and quad strains, and a broken hamate bone. Even when he was healthy, Norby looked largely overmatched, posting a .689 OPS while also being unable to bolster the reputation regarding his defense at third base. Last month, we opined that Norby's skillset would be best suited in the outfield, but the addition of Caissie complicates that. Do the Marlins give him another chance to get acclimated at third? A down year in 2026 would leave him with marginal value. The club could go in several different directions with the 25-year-old and they'd all be justifiable. View full article

As the end of the 2025 calendar year draws near, so does the deadline for tenured BBWAA members to vote on the next class of inductees for the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Ballots must be postmarked by December 31, and on January 20, we will learn which newcomers and ballot holdovers garnered the minimum 75 percent needed for enshrinement. Although Fish On First staffers do not partake in the official voting, we carefully analyze the candidates every year. If FOF was solely responsible for the class of 2026 HOF selection, who would make the cut? Ten of our staffers submitted ballots this year. Just as the BBWAA does, voters were permitted to choose up to 10 candidates. Players named on at least five ballots garnered a spot on the collective FOF ballot ("tie goes to the player," if you will). Honorable Mentions Félix Hernández, SP: For the second year in a row, King Félix finds himself a mere honorable mention, just missing as he appeared on four of the 10 submitted ballots. As we wrote last winter, Hernández's peak, while certainly comparable to that of a Hall of Fame pitcher, isn't accompanied by enough late-career years of serviceable performance. In his first year of eligibility in 2025, though, Hernández found his way onto 20.6 percent of ballots cast, a number that bodes well should his case be further examined as time progresses. With his career coinciding with a rapid decline in MLB's reliance on starting pitchers, Hernández would prove a worthy example to base future candidates' cases on. Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte, SP: Given the overwhelming similarities of their careers, I've lumped these two into one blurb. While he may never have screamed "ace," I am of the mind that consistency warrants serious Cooperstown consideration when it comes to Buehrle. His 13 seasons of 200-plus innings pitched—11 of which ended with an ERA+ better than league average—speak to that notion. Buehrle (3,283.1 IP and 117 ERA+) and Pettitte (3,316.0 IP and 117 ERA+) are two of 63 pitchers in baseball history to throw at least 3,000 regular season innings and post an ERA+ of 115 or better. Maybe not sustained greatness, but points for consistency. Cole Hamels, SP: If you're of the "need to see more crowd" when making the case against Félix Hernández, then maybe Cole Hamels is your guy. With comparable innings totals and nearly a 10-WAR lead over the former, Hamels was a workhorse relative to his era, throwing the sixth-most innings of any pitcher in the 2010s. Among the 89 pitchers who threw at least 1,000 innings in said decade, Hamels was one of just 14 to sport an ERA+ of 120 or better. He'll most certainly benefit from a feeble class of first-year candidates, though only three of our staffers had him on their ballots. If you want some more insight into Hamels, we published this piece discussing his Hall of Fame credentials. The Selections Bobby Abreu, RF MLB teams: HOU, PHI, NYY, LAA, LAD, NYM Seventh year of HOF eligibility While Bobby Abreu's peak was largely overshadowed by the likes of Barry Bonds and Co., Abreu put forth a decade of consistency that saw him as one of the sport's most complete position players. From 1998-2008, Abreu's average offensive season looked as such: 302/.407/.502/.909, 105 R, 22 HR, 96 RBI, 28 SB, 4.8 WAR. Of the 38 hitters with at least 5,000 plate appearances in that span, Abreu's 54.2 bWAR ranks seventh, just edging out the next-most valuable player, Carlos Beltrán. In the 2000's, Abreu's 2,785 times on base trailed only future Hall of Famer, Todd Helton (2,796). To illustrate his all-around offensive game, three players in MLB history have hit at least 275 home runs, stolen 400 bases, and posted a .395 or better on-base percentage: Barry Bonds, the late Rickey Henderson, and Bobby Abreu. Nine of our 10 staffers had him on their ballots, and when you put it all together, that sounds like a Hall of Famer to me. As of Tuesday morning, Abreu has received 45.0% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Carlos Beltrán, CF MLB teams: KC, HOU, NYM, SFG, STL, NYY, TEX Fourth year of HOF eligibility If Bobby Abreu was one of the sport's more complete players, his contemporary in Carlos Beltrán was that and then some. As we all know, Beltrán finds himself returning for a fourth try at induction due to his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing schedule. While certainly a thorn in his legacy, Beltrán is among the game's most universally respected players, and the 70.3 percent he received in 2025 almost makes it a sure thing that he'll headline the class of 2026. From age 22-32 between 1999-2009, Beltrán was the only player in the sport to hit at least 250 home runs, steal 250 bases, and save 70 runs on defense, making him the fourth-most valuable player overall. He accrued 56.1 bWAR in that span alone. With all ten staffers in agreement, Beltrán's here, hopefully for the last time. As of Tuesday morning, Beltrán has received 77.5% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Andruw Jones, CF MLB teams: ATL, LAD, TEX, CHW, NYY Ninth year of HOF eligibility Andruw Jones is arguably the greatest defensive center fielder of all time. The native of Curacao paired his historically great glove with raw power, mashing 434 home runs over the course of his career. Trivia question: Who are the two players in MLB history to hit 400 home runs and save 200 runs on defense? Adrián Beltré and Andruw Jones. The Jones case isn't a definitive one, though, as noted by his many times on the ballot. From a statistical perspective, traditionalists scoff at the lack of counting stats. Largely done as a productive player after age 30, Jones bounced around from four times in his last five seasons, hitting .210/.316/.424/.740, respectively. While he never truly lost his feel on defense, the stark disparity between Jones' twenties versus his thirties was night and day. Upon retirement, Jones' career hit total of 1,933 and batting average of .254 had many casting him off as a viable Hall of Fame candidate, but one cannot deny the decade of dominance that saw him as one of the game's brightest stars. Off the field, Jones was accused of domestic violence against his now ex-wife, Nicole, a thorn in his case when considering the character clause. If Jones doesn't get the requisite totals needed, it would be because of these factors. Having polled at 61.6% and 66.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively, it feels as though 2026 should be the year that Jones finally gets the call. He garnered unanimous support from our staffers. As of Tuesday morning, Jones has received 77.5% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Manny Ramírez, OF MLB teams: CLE, BOS, LAD, CHW, TBR 10th year of HOF eligibility If you're discussing the greatest right-handed hitters of all-time, it'd behoove you to mention the man born as Manuel Aristides Ramírez. There are only 18 hitters in major league history to take at least 9,000 plate appearances and retire with an adjusted OPS+ fifty percent better than league average. Of the bunch, only two aren't in the Hall—the aforementioned Bonds and Manny Ramírez, both of whom have ties to performance-enhancing drugs. While Bonds was never suspended for a failed test, Ramírez got popped twice, the second of which forced him into an early retirement in 2011. Had he played clean on the merits of his talent, Ramírez is more than likely already in Cooperstown, but his transgressions are why he's never received more than 34.3 percent of the vote. It is highly likely he falls short of the required 75 percent needed once again, though nine of the ten of us said what he did in the batter's box should be enough. As of Tuesday morning, Ramírez has received 32.5% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Álex Rodríguez, 3B/SS MLB teams: SEA, TEX, NYY Fifth year of HOF eligibility Álex Rodríguez is one of the greatest baseball players of all-time. Álex Rodríguez is also one of, if not the most, reviled player the game has ever seen. If Bonds is the name most think of when considering the Steroid era, then what transpired with Rodríguez was the manifestation of what most envision should have happened to Bonds. Failing PED tests in 2003 and 2006, as well as being named in the Biogenesis report in 2013, Rodríguez took any chances he had at the Hall of Fame and flushed them completely. His naming in the Biogenesis report netted him a 162-game suspension (originally 211 games before being reduced), then the longest handed out to an active player. The difference with the otherwise fringe HOF guys is that you felt you were watching a Hall of Famer when seeing A-Rod play. Does that absolve him of his sins? Maybe not, but it echoes a similar sentiment as to what was noted about Bonds earlier in his career with the "he was a Hall of Famer before steroids" quip. Voting for him will always come with some pause, but his on-field accomplishments—three MVPs and 696 home runs—are undeniable. Polling between 34 and 37 percent in his first four years of eligibility, it isn't out of the question for Rodríguez to see his fortunes change in the next six or so years. As of Tuesday morning, he has received 40.0% of the BBWAA vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Chase Utley, 2B MLB teams: PHI, LAD Third year of HOF eligibility The Cooperstown case for Chase Utley is a drum I'll continue to beat until he gets his just desserts. If he does find his way into the Hall one day, I would hope it serves as impetus to right the wrongs done to the likes of Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich, both second basemen north of 70 WAR. At 64.6 bWAR, Utley is the twelfth-most valuable second baseman of all time, per Baseball-Reference. What he lacks in accolades, Utley makes up for in his all-around game, being one of only four players to simultaneously have 250 home runs, 150 stolen bases, and 100 runs saved on defense. Like Jones, he has fewer than 2,000 hits, but only four players hit more than Utley's 252 home runs as a second baseman. Fellow second baseman, Jeff Kent, was recently elected to the Contemporary Era Committee largely on the strength of his 351 home runs being the most ever for a player at the position, the Mike Piazza argument, if you will. However, Kent's 55.4 bWAR is nine wins short of Utley. Utley may not have been as overwhelmingly brilliant a hitter as, say, Ramirez or Rodriguez, but the amalgam of his skills are why all ten of us here at Fish On First voted for him. He saw his BBWAA percentage jump from 28.8 to 39.8 percent between 2024 and 2025, and as of Tuesday morning, he has received 60.0% of the vote, according to the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker. Until he is a Hall of Famer, you can expect to hear more from me about Chase Utley. View full article

When he was acquired by the Marlins on August 1, 2023, via trade with the Chicago White Sox, Jake Burger gave fans the concept of a player their organization had long been deprived of—upside power with several years of team control. Miami had Burger, then 27, under control through the 2028 season. Primarily a third baseman upon arrival, Burger strung together the best stretch of his career to that point, hitting .303/.355/.505/.860 in 53 games. The Marlins, led by first-year manager Skip Schumaker, found themselves in the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2003. The following year followed a much different script, though, as Miami took a major step back. It was immediately apparent that there'd be no October baseball, triggering midseason trades of mainstays, including Luis Arráez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Tanner Scott, for a team that would go on to lose 100 games. Burger began 2024 in a prolonged slump, but compensated for it from July onward. In 137 games, he hit .250/.301/.460/.761 with a team-leading 29 home runs and 76 runs batted in. The aforementioned Schumaker, who had been voted NL Manager of the Year in '23, departed at season's end. In no hurry to return to the dugout, he agreed to spend a gap year with the Texas Rangers as a senior advisor to president of baseball operations Chris Young. Schumaker and Co. would quickly get to work, acquiring his former player in Burger on December 11. Miami received a trio of prospects—infielders Echedry Vargas and Maximo Acosta, and pitcher Brayan Mendoza. In his first season in the Lone Star State, Burger dealt with adversity both off and on the field, starting with the birth of a daughter diagnosed with Down Syndrome. In honor of her, Burger changed his uniform number to 21. Making first base his full-time position, Burger OPS'd just .561 through his first 30 games. The Rangers demoted him to Triple-A Round Rock on May 2. Though he would hit a more respectable .254/.284/.453/.737 the rest of the way upon being recalled, Burger finished 2025 with a career-worst .687 OPS. His availability was limited by oblique, quad and wrist injuries. Beneath a trying year in the batter's box, however, Burger made some progress on the other side of the ball. After posting consistently mediocre defensive grades at the hot corner, first base has been a more ideal position for him. In 2025, for the first time in his career, Burger graded out as a plus defender, posting plus-one defensive runs saved over a 91-game sample. Looking ahead to 2026, Burger will again be playing under Schumaker, who was appointed Rangers manager following the resignation of Bruce Bochy. He appears to be penciled in as the club's first baseman. As for Miami, there is a void at the position with no satisfying internal solution. Eric Wagaman produced a Burger-like .674 OPS in 2025, but has no track record of exceeding that, making it difficult to justify everyday playing time. Rule 5 draft success story Liam Hicks saw time there, though severely lacking in the power department, he's of more value to the Marlins as a catcher. Graham Pauley, received in the deal that sent Tanner Scott to the Padres, has shown promise as a third baseman. While he's capable of shifting over to the less-demanding corner infield spot, that'd be a waste of his defensive prowess. Connor Norby and Griffin Conine have even been floated as candidates for a position change out of necessity. The summer prior to Burger's departure, the Marlins acquired Deyvison De Los Santos, a solid defender at first who was in midst of leading Minor League Baseball in home runs. Although not explicitly stated, the club envisioned him being ready for the big league job at some point in 2025. Instead, his game power plummeted against Triple-A competition and he never received a call-up. Perhaps the Fish are feeling better about his outlook on the heels of a successful winter ball campaign, but he's still an unknown commodity. The young players acquired in return for Burger each experienced growing pains during their first season with the organization. Maximo Acosta has already made an impression, displaying his raw power and positional versatility in a 19-game MLB sample. Barring injuries to Otto Lopez or Xavier Edwards, he's likely to begin 2026 as Triple-A depth. Echedry Vargas and Brayan Mendoza struggled in High-A, though they have the tools to rebound. All things considered, it is premature to determine which club came out on top here. For the Marlins to fully move on from Burger's absence, they'll have to genuinely contend for a postseason berth without first base being as much of a weakness as it was in 2025. View full article

Many of baseball's most prolific players at the turn of the 21st century were indicted on or suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs. Thankfully, there were a few exceptions who showed us that one didn't need such substances to hit home runs with the best of them. These are your Jim Thome (612 HR), Frank Thomas (521), Ken Griffey Jr. (630), and Fred McGriff (493) types, and somewhat lost amidst them, Carlos Delgado (473). Thome, Thomas, and the Junior Griffey were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility. As for McGriff, he was repeatedly snubbed by the writers. It wouldn't be until 2023 that he resurfaced on the Contemporary Baseball Era player ballot. The committee emphatically supported his candidacy. Three years later, Delgado hopes to follow in the paw prints of "Crime Dog" as that same committee will convene this Sunday at the commencement of the sport's Winter Meetings. On the surface, Delgado's biggest boon is his home run total, which ranks 19th in the divisional era (1969-present). Nine of the 18 ahead of him are Hall of Famers, with two more—Albert Pujols (703) and Miguel Cabrera (511)—seen as slam-dunk picks once eligible. Barry Bonds (762) and Gary Sheffield (509), players with ties to PEDs, are also being considered by the committee for 2026 enshrinement. Delgado homered 336 times for the Toronto Blue Jays and 104 times for the New York Mets, as well as 33 times during his lone season as a member of the then-Florida Marlins. The Marlins signed Delgado to a four-year/$52 million contract after 12 seasons with Toronto. He hit the ground running for the Fish in 2005, hitting .300 in April. The subsequent month was even better, featuring eight home runs en route to a 1.085 OPS. Of all hitters in franchise history to take at least 100 plate appearances in May, Delgado's OPS in '05 ranks ninth. Delgado's consistency was remarkable and the end result was a .301/.399/.582/.981 slash line. In high-leverage situations (as defined by Baseball-Reference), he was practically invincible, slashing .421/.487/.916/1.403. No MLB hitter has matched that OPS in a single season since (min. 100 PA). Even when put into the context of 2005's offensive environment, Delgado had a 161 OPS+ (with 100 representing league average). Of the 144 Marlins hitters to qualify for a batting title, that ranks fourth. Delgado finished sixth in National League MVP voting for a Marlins team that remained in playoff contention until late September, ultimately being eliminated after a 4-0 loss to the Nationals on the 26th of that month. Florida would finish the season 83-79, then just their fourth winning season in franchise history, falling six games short of the NL Wild Card. And just like that, it was time for another rebuild in Miami. The 33-year-old Delgado, despite his obvious value on the field, was jettisoned in favor of younger, cheaper talent. Less than two months following the end of the season, the Marlins traded Delgado to the division rival New York Mets in a deal that netted them Mike Jacobs. Jacobs would settle in as Miami's first baseman, hitting 69 home runs over the next three seasons with a respectable 105 OPS+. But to this day, Delgado is the best power hitter that the franchise has ever deployed at the position. Particularly in recent years, first base has been a revolving door of mediocre individuals worried about clearing the replacement-level threshold, to say nothing of the HOF election threshold. Throughout the vast majority of his career—including 2005—Delgado's glove was a statistically significant liability. As a Marlin, he posted an MLB-worst minus-20 defensive runs saved. It negated a chunk of his offensive production, hence his lifetime 44.4 bWAR. Hitters rarely reach Cooperstown with such a low total. At least 12 of the 16 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee members will need to vote for Delgado in order for him to reach, in his words, "the ultimate goal." View full article

If you grew up watching baseball in the late 2000s and 2010s, you know the name Cole Hamels. With silky smooth mechanics, one of MLB's best changeups, and movie-star good looks, he had a brilliant pitching career. For the first time this winter, Baseball Hall of Fame voters are being tasked with deciding whether or not Hamels is worthy of induction into Cooperstown. Peruse the list of Hall of Fame starting pitchers and you will see a variance in the caliber of careers. For every Walter Johnson and Cy Young, you have ten CC Sabathia/Waite Hoyt/Dazzy Vance types. Inductees exist on a spectrum, and if chosen, Hamels would certainly be on the lower end of that spectrum. His candidacy ought to be mulled over carefully. While a player's place in the history of the sport factors into their HOF candidacy, important, too, is where they rank among their contemporaries. The timing of Hamels' debut makes this particularly complicated. Breaking into the majors in 2006, Hamels got his feet wet in the midst of the golden years of Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz. They epitomized the last great era of starting pitcher workhorses. All four would be inducted in their first year of HOF eligibility. When Hamels debuted, MLB starters were averaging 5.8 innings per outing. By the time he announced his retirement in 2023, individual workloads had diminished to an average of 5.1 innings per start. The job description gradually changed in the interim. Hamels made the necessary adjustments along the way. Since 2006, he ranks fifth in bWAR and sixth in WAA (wins above average) among pitchers to throw at least 2,000 innings. His 123 ERA+ (100 represents league average) is tied with David Price for sixth. Broaden the scope of our search by an additional half-decade and Hamels still looks elite. Since 2001, he is the seventh-best pitcher on a bWAR per inning basis (.021), ahead of HOF ballot holdovers Mark Buehrle, Andy Pettitte, and Félix Hernández. Speaking of the latter, Hernández received an encouraging 20.6 percent of the vote in his first year of eligibility. For a player to be elected, they must receive votes on at least 75 percent of ballots cast. What Hernández lacks in terms of longevity, he nearly makes up for it in accolades. "The King" won an AL Cy Young in 2010, hurled a perfect game, and made six All-Star appearances. However, he had no postseason pedigree to speak of, having never thrown a single playoff pitch, with Seattle sporting just five winning seasons during his fifteen seasons in the majors. MLB Career Comparison Metric Cole Hamels Félix Hernández bWAR 59.0 49.8 IP 2,698.0 2,729.2 bWAR/IP 0.021 0.018 ERA 3.43 3.42 ERA+ 123 117 FIP 3.68 3.52 All-Star Selections 4 6 Cy Young Awards 0 1 Hamels, on the other hand, meaningfully added to his résumé in October. During the 2008 postseason, Hamels went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA over five starts in which he averaged seven innings a start, as the Phillies won their first World Series since 1980. Hamels would go on to receive NLCS and World Series MVP honors. Some more notable Hamels fun facts: He's one of 57 pitchers with at least 2,500 innings pitched and an ERA+ greater than 120, of which 32 are in the Hall of Fame. Three others—Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander—are destined to be elected once eligible. By WAR, Hamels is the 16th-most valuable pitcher in the Cy Young Award era (1956-present) to never win the hardware himself. To completely discount Cole Hamels' HOF candidacy is to be ignorant about how the role of the starting pitcher has evolved throughout the past two decades. It's difficult to imagine a 2026 induction for him, but over time, hopefully BBWAA voters evaluate his remarkable career with the proper context. View full article

Admit it, you thought the 2025 Miami Marlins would be bad. It's okay—I did, too. And yet, they finished a year with disaster in the forecast at 79 wins and played meaningful baseball late into September. With a pipeline of projectable minor league talent expected to make an impact, the prospects for a competitive Marlins club in 2026 seem within reach. However, the organization cannot solely rest on the laurels of what they already have. What reinforcements can they bring aboard to continue moving the needle in the direction of postseason contention? Stating the obvious, certain marquee names are unrealistic for the Fish, whose revenue streams pale in comparison to most other MLB franchises. They would inevitably get outbid for the likes of Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Edwin Díaz. Rather, I'll be highlighting several free agents who have less leverage and more inconsistent track records, but intriguing skill sets nonetheless. SP Dustin May Key 2025 statistics: 4.96 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 132.1 IP, 1.42 WHIP Regardless of how 2025 played out, there was a time in the not-too-distant past when Dustin May was among the more exciting young pitchers in baseball. The flame-throwing right-hander pitched to a 3.10 ERA in 191 ⅔ innings of work over parts of five seasons from 2019-2023, but an injury history highlighted by Tommy John surgery in 2023 kept fans wondering what would be of May once fully healthy. The result was a 4.96 ERA split between the eventual world-champion Los Angeles Dodgers and wild card-bound Boston Red Sox. While not the outcome May would have liked, there remains light beneath the paltry results. For one, May threw a career-high 132-plus innings, and with reports from May himself that an elbow issue that cut his season short is now healed, confidence in him assuming a similar or possibly even higher workload isn't out of the realm of possibility. Two, age is still a friend, as May will pitch 2026 in his age-28 season. For the Marlins' sake, May's suspect track record of health and recent subpar season make him affordable, even by their conservative spending standards. The prospect of a healthy and more productive May could be a welcome addition to a club expected to part with some of its current pitching staff. RP Andrew Chafin Key 2025 statistics: 2.41 ERA (177 ERA+), 3.46 FIP, 5.1 BB/9 If you've followed my work here, you know I've been on the "sign Andrew Chafin" train for the past several years. After another productive season in 2025, I'm still buying a ticket. While he didn't make his season debut until May 3, Chafin didn't miss a beat, pitching to a sub-3 ERA with Washington before finishing the year with an even better sub-2 ERA in his brief time with the Angels. As was the case in Washington, Chafin's underlying metrics suggest luck—he issued walks at the highest rate of his career—but the larger body of work says otherwise. In 542 career innings pitched over his 12 seasons, Chafin owns a 3.30 ERA and 3.35 FIP. Chafin isn't without concern. His fastball velocity continues to deteriorate, ranking merely in the fourth percentile among MLB pitchers this year. But with uncertainty surrounding the status of Andrew Nardi, who missed all of 2025 due to injury, Chafin represents a cost-effective—emphasis on effective—option for Miami in 2026. 1B Nathaniel Lowe Key 2025 statistics: .689 OPS (94 OPS+), 18 HR, 10.2 BB% If the 2026 Marlins want to emulate the 2002 "Moneyball" Oakland A's, then Nathaniel Lowe could be their Scott Hatteberg. The version of Lowe that the Nationals got in 2025 (.665 OPS) would have most running for the hills, but upon arriving in Boston on August 18, he resumed his old ways, hitting .280 with a 114 wRC+ and helping the Red Sox reach the postseason for the first time since 2021. Lowe brings a Silver Slugger, World Series championship, power, and a career 10.9-percent walk rate to the table despite a career-worst season. The Sox designated him for assignment on Tuesday rather than pay a projected $13.5 million salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility, so he should be attainable for a significantly lower price than that. Lowe can provide a boost to a Marlins team whose first basemen ranked 28th with a 83 wRC+ in 2025. Better than having Eric Wagaman atop the club's depth chart at the position. 1B Rhys Hoskins Key 2025 statistics: 90 G, .748 OPS (108 OPS+), 11.6 BB% Similar to Lowe, Hoskins would provide the Marlins with an injection of offense that they severely need at first base. Profile-wise, the two are eerily similar, sporting above-average plate discipline with above-average over-the-fence power and negative defensive value as strictly 1B/DH types. The difference, however, is in age, as Hoskins will enter his age-33 season in 2026, sporting a 102 OPS+ over the last two seasons with Milwaukee. Despite being two years his senior, Hoskins can still very much turn on a fastball. Among the 261 MLB hitters with at least 100 plate appearances ending on four-seamers in 2025, Hoskins' 59.7-percent hard-hit rate ranked 31st. Against all varieties of fastballs, he whiffed only 18.6% of the time (compared to his 27.6 whiff% overall). A notorious Marlins killer in his younger days, perhaps it's time for Hoskins to make amends by joining the Fish. View full article

The sight of Josh Simpson warming in the Marlins bullpen this season was the equivalent of a tornado siren in the Midwest. With only a few minutes of advance notice, you had to brace for a potential catastrophe. The Marlins mainly used the rookie left-hander in low-leverage situations, when Simpson's performance was unlikely to impact the outcome of the game. But there was a notorious exception against the Boston Red Sox on August 15 that made fans question manager Clayton McCullough's sanity. Simpson was brought in to face the top of Boston's lineup with the score tied in the bottom of the ninth inning. He threw only two of his 12 pitches for strikes, allowing back-to-back-to-back batters reach safely in a losing effort. Simpson clung to a spot on the Marlins active roster for more than half of the 2025 season thanks to his handedness and breaking ball shape. Unfortunately, he did not capitalize on the opportunity. A 32nd-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft out of Columbia University, Simpson toiled for parts of six seasons in the minors before debuting on June 21. In 31 games with Miami, he pitched to a 7.34 ERA, fifth-worst among the 238 relievers to throw at least 30 innings in 2025. Simpson's teammate, George Soriano, boasted the worst such mark, finishing the year with an 8.35 ERA. On the whole, the league hit .272 with an .841 OPS against Simpson. For context, that output mirrors the season of Colorado Rockies All-Star Hunter Goodman, who hit .278 with an .843 OPS. Although Simpson was more effective versus lefties, his control was still an issue and the mistakes that he made in the strike zone were costly—the majority of their hits (seven out of 12) went for extra bases. b2j4yo.mp4 With end-of-season roster moves looming, Simpson is in jeopardy of losing his 40-man spot. His closest historical comps may convince the Marlins front office to sever ties. Only 13 pitchers in MLB's modern era have appeared in 30 games and posted an ERA of 7.00 or worse in their first season. Colorado's Ryan Rolison also earned that unwanted distinction in 2025. Of the 11 qualified pitchers who came before Simpson and Rolison, six of them failed to see big league action following their first year. That includes 1953 Chicago Cubs right-hander Tom Simpson, who is seemingly unrelated to Josh. Marlins fans will remember the one who wound up having the most substantial career—Juan Carlos Oviedo (formerly known as "Leo Núñez"). After debuting to the tune of a 7.55 ERA in 2005, he appeared in 308 additional games. From 2009-2011 with the then-Florida Marlins, he pitched to a respectable 3.86 ERA (107 ERA+). Oviedo's 92 saves ranked ninth among relievers in that span. With that being said, there is ample evidence that Simpson is a better pitcher than his surface-level statistics bely. This season, Simpson's ERA was nearly three runs higher than his 4.45 expected ERA (xERA). Per Baseball Savant, his gap between those figures was 17th-largest among the 578 MLB pitchers with at least 50 batted ball events. Simpson's whiff rate was above average and he induced the second-most grounders on the Marlins staff, trailing only Tyler Phillips. 1.mp4 For the Marlins to take another step forward in 2026, they cannot merely rely on improvement from their internal options. They should be motivated to seek upgrades via the free agent market, particularly to reinforce a bullpen that finished with a 4.28 ERA (22nd in the majors). In today's environment, MLB teams churn through more pitchers than ever before, which bodes well for Simpson's chances of resurfacing in the big leagues. Whether he reports to spring training with the Marlins or another organization, though, the 28-year-old will need to demonstrate that he's made tangible adjustments. View full article

What is a "good" baseball player? It's difficult to answer that concisely because a player's production can be shaped in various ways and still yield significant positive value to their respective team. For instance, we know Adam Dunn—the hulking slugger who played 14 years in the big leagues—was a poor defender, amassing 168 runs below average, according to Rfield. We also know that Dunn was a force in the middle of the order, offsetting his 28.6-percent strikeout rate with a 15.8-percent walk rate to go with his 462 home runs. He was 24-percent above average at the plate, according to OPS+. In totality, Dunn was a "good" player, though nowhere near as impactful as his power numbers would suggest. Only one of nearly 400 BBWAA voters endorsed him during his lone year on the Hall of Fame ballot. Through the lens of advanced metrics, we aim to refine our understanding of what makes a player either good or bad by objectively quantifying their impact in different facets of the game. Contrast the aforementioned Dunn with the Miami Marlins' own Otto Lopez. The former waiver claim has been 12-percent below average in terms of OPS+, and he did not sniff Rookie of the Year votes nor All-Star selections during his first two seasons of regular MLB playing time (both of which Dunn received). Yet, Lopez has comfortably outdone Dunn in Baseball-Reference wins above replacement over those equivalent periods of their careers, 6.1 bWAR to 4.5 bWAR. In 2025, Lopez's 3.5 bWAR trailed only Kyle Stowers (3.6) for the Marlins team lead. Miami may not have been playing meaningful baseball late into September without Lopez solidifying their shortstop position. A versatile player coming up through the Toronto Blue Jays system, Lopez quickly established himself at second base upon arriving in Miami in 2024, grading out at plus-9 defensive runs saved. While starting 95 of his 106 games at second, he flashed positional dexterity when asked, logging 52 innings at second, 38 at third, and 10 in the outfield. Lopez assumed full-time shortstop duties on May 21 of this year when the struggling Xavier Edwards suffered a minor injury. By season's end, not only was he seen as competent there, but Lopez had joined the company of MLB's elite shortstop defenders, grading out at plus-7 defensive runs saved to go along with the 6 DRS he put up in just 32 games at second prior to transitioning. Former teammate Cal Quantrill even had this to say about Lopez's sure-handedness: "Otto can pick it...It's such a boost on the mound when you get an out that you may not have deserved. It's exciting...Sometimes, I think I'm more pumped up out there than they are when they make the play." There's also the baserunning aspect of his game. Lopez is 35-for-45 (77.8%) on stolen base attempts since coming over to Miami, right around the league average 78.4 percent success rate over that span. It's one way of explaining why he's been worth five runs on the bases, according to Rbaser—tops among all Marlins players since 2024. Beyond proving himself as a difference-making fielder at a premium position, Lopez also experienced an uptick in power this season. He is one of just 14 players since the start of 2024 with 20-plus home runs and three-plus dWAR. Lopez is a good player who would fit on any team. The well-roundedness of his skill set gives him the opportunity to contribute in practically any game situation. The presence of Lopez should not preclude the Marlins from exploring all avenues to improve their roster this offseason, even at shortstop. However, let this be a reminder that the 27-year-old is one of the organization's most valuable assets moving forward. View full article

MIAMI—If the 2025 Miami Marlins were not playing for October themselves, the best they could do on the season's final day was make sure the Mets suffered the same fate. For the Mets, who committed over $1 billion in new player contracts during the previous offseason, a victory on Sunday was absolutely vital to their playoff hopes. After enduring last-day keel-overs against the Fish in both 2007 and 2008, would this be the third installment of that arc? Behind five erratically effective innings from Edward Cabrera and a four-run bottom of the fourth, history indeed repeatedly itself. In front of a sell-out loanDepot park, Miami closed out their thirty-third season of play by defeating New York 4-0. With the win, Miami concludes the season 79-83, a 17-win improvement year over year. The Marlins also won the season series 7-6 over the Mets, marking the first time since 2017 that they've done so. After being a season-best 21 games over .500 through play on June 12, the Mets began a free fall that would see them go 39-54 over their final 93 games of play. The team sported a 4.93 ERA over that stretch, which would see their five-and-a-half game lead in the NL East dwindle to the point of having to win and hope for the opposite to happen for their NL Wild Card hopeful foes in Cincinnati. Although the Reds did their part by stumbling to a 4-2 loss, the Mets failed to capitalize. When Tyler Phillips—acquired for pocket change on the eve of the season—induced the ground ball double play off the bat of Francisco Lindor, there stood $765 million man Juan Soto in the on-deck circle. 94d9eac3-f26b11d4-a8996f0e-csvm-diamondgcp-asset_1280x720_59_4000K.mp4 Continuing a breakout season with his 26th start, Cabrera walked five in his five shutout innings, lowering his season ERA to 3.53 over a career-high 137 ⅔ innings. "I'm very thankful for this season, the best of my career," noted Cabrera. When asked about what changed for him in 2025, Cabrera remarked on the consistency he showed, something that eluded him in years past. "I was battling a lot of injuries in the past. This season, I was able to stay healthy and do my best out there." That consistency manifested in better on-field results as well, as Cabrera allowed three or fewer runs in 20 of his 26 starts. As they did in Friday's win, Miami needed just one inning to do the requisite damage at the plate, putting up four runs in the bottom of the fourth thanks to run-scoring extra-base hits from Eric Wagaman, Brian Navarreto, and Javier Sanoja. The Mets' best opportunity came in the top of the fifth. After a walk to Juan Soto to load the bases, Pete Alonso, who confirmed his intent to opt out following Sunday's game, lined out to Sanoja to extinguish the threat. On the day, New York went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position. The end of Miami's 2025, while overachieving against the expectations most had set for them, still leaves many pontificating on the what-ifs: What if Sandy Alcantara delivered a full season of the performance he showed in the second half? What if Kyle Stowers didn't get hurt and miss extended time? What if the team added at the trade deadline? The list goes on. As we turn the page towards 2026, here's a note from first-year manager Clayton McCullough: "To have seen so many take advantage of opportunities and watch this group as the season continues to progress, they really enjoy playing with each other. There's a desire to win and a belief in themselves...And I think we have a lot of confidence heading into an important offseason for the guys in there and our staff as we continue to look to get better." View full article

The notion of the 2025 Miami Marlins as a playoff team has always felt like a pipe dream. However, a well-timed winning streak still kept them mathematically alive in the pursuit of the National League's third Wild Card spot entering play on Wednesday. That in itself has made their season a success considering the non-existent expectations. Looking to keep the dream alive, the Fish turned to Ryan Weathers in just his eighth start of the season and third since returning from a left lat strain that cost him three months. In keeping with the theme of inclement conditions—rain forced Tuesday's opener into an hour-plus delay—Weathers cast a dark cloud over his club's October aspirations, surrendering five runs over 4 ⅔ innings, including three home runs allowed in Philadelphia's 11-1 rout over Miami. The Phillies, deploying a Bryce Harper-less and J.T. Realmuto-less lineup, hit a franchise record eight home runs on the evening, a mark that also stands as the most allowed in a single game by Miami pitching. After the Marlins got out to an early 1-0 lead in the second, courtesy of an Eric Wagaman RBI single, the Phillies' power barrage commenced. Kyle Schwarber, one of the top NL MVP candidates, blasted his 55th home run of the season over the center field wall of Citizens Bank Park to even the score in the bottom of the third. Edmundo Sosa, Philadelphia's utility infielder, tacked on his first of three home runs on the evening in the fourth, only to be followed by a Bryson Stott blast two batters later. "I thought for the most part he threw well," manager Clayton McCullough said of Weathers. Sosa became just the seventh player with a three-homer game against Miami, and first since Shohei Ohtani's historic three-homer, ten-RBI game that saw him become the first member of the 50/50 club on September 19 last season. Bryce Harper had one of the six prior such games against the Marlins in his MVP-winning 2015 season. Putting the game firmly out of range for the Marlins to mount a comeback, there was a four-home run bottom of the seventh that saw Schwarber hit his second of the evening, and 56th of the season, inching himself within two home runs of Ryan Howard's franchise record 58 in 2006. Howard would go on to be named the league's MVP that season. Lost in the sounds and images of balls caroming off the bleacher seats was the outing put forth by a former Marlin, Jesús Luzardo, who fired seven innings of one-run ball. In the process, Luzardo became the fourth Phillies pitcher with a start against the Marlins of 10 strikeouts, zero earned runs, zero walks, joining current teammates Aaron Nola (2020) and Zack Wheeler (2021), and also the late Roy Halladay (2010). Looking Ahead The Marlins will close out their season series against the Phillies on Thursday. Janson Junk (6-3, 4.27 ERA) will oppose Walker Buehler (9-7, 5.13 ERA) in the finale. In his previous outing on September 19, Junk held the Rangers to one run over seven innings. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 6:05 EST. For the Marlins to still have a pulse in the Wild Card race by then, they will need the Arizona Diamondbacks to lose their Thursday afternoon contest to the Los Angeles Dodgers. View full article

This shouldn't be happening, and it doesn't make sense. That is what I have been telling myself amid this late-season surge from the Miami Marlins. And yet, despite still being four games under .500 and having a run differential of minus-82, the Marlins are still clinging to life in the NL Wild Card race as the last week of the 2025 regular season approaches. Sunday's 4-2 victory over the Texas Rangers (79-77)—who still had playoff aspirations of their own entering the weekend—extended the Marlins winning streak to six, including 10 of their last 11. In conjunction with a Reds win and a Mets loss, the Marlins now find themselves for four games out of the third Wild Card spot. Miami is tied with the Cardinals (76-80) and also looking up at the Diamondbacks (79-77) and Giants (77-79). Setting the tone, Eury Pérez proved imposing, striking out a season-high nine and allowing just a pair of hits in his four innings of work. Pérez threw 88 pitches on the day, generating 16 whiffs. The 22-year-old lost a potential fifth inning of work when a dropped third strike to Josh Jung got away from catcher Brian Navarreto, forcing Pérez to throw an additional nine pitches. Despite pitching to a pedestrian 4.20 ERA since returning from Tommy John surgery, the former top prospect has a lot to keep fans salivating over. His .197 opponent's batting average ranks eighth-best among pitchers to throw at least 90 innings this season. Opposite of him, Merrill Kelly, making his third start of the season against Miami and first since being acquired from Arizona, was tagged for three runs over his 4 ⅓ innings. Shortstop Otto Lopez opened the scoring with an RBI double in the top of the fourth, his 20th of the season. Lopez's 77 RBI are the most by a Marlins middle infielder since Starlin Castro's 86 in 2019. Following him, Heriberto Hernández kept the train rolling, driving in López for his 10th RBI of the month. One inning later, Agustín Ramírez knocked Kelly from the game when he doubled home Jakob Marsee and made a bit of history in the process. Ramírez tied Iván Rodríguez's franchise record for the most extra-base hits by a catcher in a season, with 55. In adding to the "this shouldn't be working" narrative, first-year manager Clayton McCullough turned to George Soriano to lock down a save in the bottom of the ninth. Belying the 8.55 ERA that he carried into Sunday, it took Soriano all of 12 pitches to do just that. Collectively, Marlins pitchers allowed only seven earned runs during their 30 frames at Globe Life Field (2.10 ERA), compiling 27 strikeouts compared to eight walks. Those are encouraging results for the club's first series utilizing their new pitch-calling system. Looking Ahead The Marlins will travel to Philadelphia, where they'll start a three-game series against the NL East champion Phillies on Tuesday. NL Cy Young contender Cristopher Sánchez (13-5, 2.66 ERA) will look to continue his stranglehold on Miami, having posted a 1.27 ERA in 35 ⅓ innings of work against them. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 6:45 EST. View full article

MIAMI—When facing MLB competition, Adam Mazur has not yet come close to justifying the hype that once surrounded him as a prospect. The 24-year-old, former second-round pick entered play on Sunday with a career 7.04 ERA. Perhaps his 13th career start will later be remembered as a turning point. The Marlins' bats were no match for the Tigers pitching staff, as the prospective AL Central champions shut them down in Detroit's 2-0 victory to avoid the sweep. However, Mazur did everything in his power to keep the Fish in the game. "It's just a building block. Obviously, it's not done, but it's a step in the right direction," said Mazur after throwing six innings of one-hit, two-run ball. Keider Montero, making his first start since July 25, allowed just three hits over five scoreless frames, backed up by four goose eggs courtesy of the trio of José Urquidy, Tommy Kahnle, and Will Vest. Detroit pitching scattered seven hits on the day, with none accounting for extra bases. Despite having baserunners in seven of the nine innings, it wouldn't be until Eric Wagaman in the bottom of the seventh that Miami had a runner reach scoring position. "When (Detroit) got some traffic out there, they made some pitches in crucial spots, and it became the difference today," said manager Clayton McCullough. The difference in question came early, as a Colt Keith ground ball deflected off the glove of Wagaman at first base in the top of the second. A play that should've ended the inning instead resulted in three separate errors. Upon retrieving the ball, second baseman Maximo Acosta threw errantly to third in an attempt to catch lead runner Gleyber Torres, allowing Torres to score. When left fielder and Saturday's hero, Troy Johnston, bobbled the ball upon its caroming off the wall, that gave Keith an extra 90 feet. As the pitcher of record for this display of defensive futility, Mazur became the first Marlins pitcher since Edward Cabrera nearly a year to the day (9/13/24) to lose a start of at least six innings pitched and allow zero earned runs. Now 70-80, Miami needs to win out over their final 12 games to finish above .500 (the longest winning streak in franchise history is only nine games). Looking Ahead With an off-day on Monday, the Marlins will travel to Denver, where they'll begin a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. Eury Pérez (6-5, 4.57 ERA) will take the ball for Miami in Tuesday's series opener. Kyle Freeland (4-15, 4.97 ERA) will oppose him for Colorado. First pitch from Coors Field is slated for 8:40 EST. View full article