Why I'm buying in on Jakob Marsee in 2027

When he debuted in the latter half of the 2025 season, it seemed Jakob Marsee would become a resource the Marlins had long been devoid of: high-upside, cost-controlled position player talent.

In his 55-game rookie campaign, Marsee slashed .292/.363/.478/.842, 33 percent better than a league-average hitter in terms of wRC+. Among the 19 NL rookies to take at least 200 plate appearances, Marsee's 1.9 bWAR ranked fifth despite playing merely a third of his team's total games. Pro-rated on a 162-game basis, Marsee was playing like a six-win player in just his age-24 season.

The question headed into 2026 was not whether he would crack the Opening Day roster, but whether the Marlins would get out in front of the market and work to sign him long term. Contract extension negotiations took place, but no deal materialized.

The start of the regular season hit him like a Mack truck. In March, Marsee OPS'd .506, .572 in April, then rebounded to .702 in May, before a .527 June left him entering mid-summer with a .189/.307/.287/.595 line. Of the 51 hitters to take at least 350 plate appearances through June, Marsee's 71 wRC+ ranked dead last. 

Once the calendar hit July, though, a switch flipped. Over his final 265 PA, Marsee hit .286/.401/.455, good for a 139 wRC+. He would finish 2026 as a league-average hitter overall while ranking third on the Fish in stolen bases and leaving little doubt that he belonged in center field defensively. 

I will make the case that Marsee's immediate future is bright despite spending more than half of this past season as a liability.

In being a productive offensive player, there is no better place to start than getting on base in the first place. Even amid his cold spells, Marsee did just that. Plate discipline says a lot about a hitter's makeup, and the ability to spit on quality pitches will never go out of style. While a walk will never have the appeal of a home run, it helps offset the offensive slumps that can hamper a hitter over a season.

Through June, Marsee drew walks in 12.5 percent of plate appearances, 18th-best in the sport. When Marsee turned it in on the second half, he walked 12.8 percent of the time.

Marsee ultimately became the first Marlin since Christian Yelich in 2017 aged 25 or younger to draw at least 75 free passes in a single season. Across MLB, he also was one of just three players aged 25 or younger to draw 75-plus walks and steal 20-plus bases, joining Pete Crow-Armstrong and James Wood.  

Sporting a .275 wOBA through the end of June, luck was on Marsee's side from then on out, as he saw that number jump to .371. In short, Marsee's outcomes regressed to the mean thanks to a consistently sound process.

Defensively, Marsee finished in the 94th percentile in outs above average (OAA) and 78th percentile in arm strength among center fielders. I would be inclined to give Marsee more leash out in center, though metrics such as defensive runs saved viewed his performance in a much more negative light (-9 DRS).

There is also the question of whether Marsee taps more into the power one would assume he possesses given his build. A hypothetical path to that could be incorporating a slightly more aggressive approach at the plate after he swung at only 58.9% of pitches in the strike zone this season; when he was a formidable slugger in 2025, that figure was 62.4% in the majors and 64.6% in the minors. 

Availability is more of a question mark for 2027, as it was recently announced that Marsee is undergoing left UCL reconstruction surgery. He will likely begin the season on the injured list if Opening Day takes place as scheduled.

The Marlins have a more than viable backup plan should Marsee miss time, as Fish On First's third-ranked prospect Cam Cannerella appears to be on the precipice of being called up. Across three levels in 2026, Cannerella hit like an MVP candidate, slashing .324/.422/.512/.934, stealing 21 bases and affirming his status as a 60-grade defender. 

Even if Marsee never develops into the player we saw in 2025, maintaining his patient approach while playing a premium position will make him a cornerstone for the Marlins if they intend to make a playoff run in 2027 and beyond. 

Should the Marlins keep Brian Navarreto as Joe Mack's backup entering the 2027 season?

Should the Marlins keep Brian Navarreto as Joe Mack's backup entering the 2027 season?

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