FanPost: Rule 5 Draft Targets: Pitchers

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After analyzing some potential offensive targets, today the focus shifts toward pitchers. Although there is a big number of arms available for next week’s draft, there aren’t a lot of names you can say will improve Miami’s bullpen corps. But teams never have enough pitching and it is particularly true during Spring Training when injuries start to appear.

The success rate is historically higher when picking up pitchers than batters in the Rule 5 Draft, therefore the chance of the Marlins drafting a pitcher is a bit higher than a field player.

What pitcher profile can this team actually use? Tanner Scott (closer), Andrew Nardi (setup), A.J. Puk, Huascar Brazoban, JT Chargois (late-inning relievers), Steven Okert, George Soriano, and Bryan Hoeing (long relievers/low leverage) all have more or less defined roles in the current bullpen.

However, someone to replace David Robertson (right-handed high-leverage/setup) is a good start, though one can expect Anthony Bender, Anthony Maldonado, and/or even Max Meyer will be given the chance to replace that profile, with recently acquired arms Calvin Faucher and Ryan Jensen ready to compete as well. In addition to Robertson's spot, a long reliever/spot starter or low-leverage multi-innings reliever can have a space on the roster, especially if Hoeing doesn’t recover from his 2023 late-season struggles.

Repeating the exercise from last week, here are a handful of pitchers that can be interesting to add to the 40-man. Both starters and relievers are considered. Given the variety of profiles, players have been divided into three categories.

Ready for a Chance

This group has nothing left to prove in AAA. Each of them comes with question marks, which is natural for any Rule 5 player available.

1. Misael Tamarez (AAA, HOU)–With raw tools, Tamarez has a mid-90s FB which can reach 99 at times, paired with a SL and a CH. This season he worked both as starter (17 Starts, 4.32 ERA, 73 Ks in 73.0 IP) and reliever (9 G, 7.07 ERA, 27 K in 28.0 IP), drawing more BBs than needed and unattractive peripherals (5.35 BB/9, 6.10 FIP, 5.34 xFIP, .270 BABIP). The Marlins have a history of “fixing” these types of players and Tamarez might be that low-risk, high-reward player teams are looking for at the draft.

2. Mitch Spence (AAA, NYY)–Never a top prospect, the 25-year-old had a solid season for the Rail Raiders leading the International League with 163.0 IP allowing 4.47 ER per 9, with similar peripherals. He struck out 153 batters and his best offering is an above-average SL which complements with a decent CV, a low-90s FB, and good control (2.93 BB/9). Meet Daniel Castano’s replacement: he can give you multi-inning efforts plus some spot starts.

3. Cam Sanders (AAA, CHC)–A former starter who transitioned to the bullpen due to control issues, Sanders has a tremendous arsenal with FB, SL, CV, and CH all evaluated as average or better pitches. He threw 64.2 innings out of the bullpen in Iowa, striking out 97 (!!) while walking 69 (also !!). Hello, Scott, Cabrera?

Potential fits in the long run

This group might need a bit more seasoning in AAA, but if they can limit the damage during their first taste of the majors, could be worth keeping on the active roster in 2024 and prove to be a good investment in a few years.

4. Evan McKendry (AAA, MIL)–Traded during midseason from Durham (TB) to Nashville for old friend C Alex Jackson, McKendry is surely a familiar name to Mr. Bendix. Evan had better results on the former team, but still put some similar numbers between teams with a deceptive, "kitchen sink” delivery which allows a plus CH to play up. His fastball velocity is a concern, typically sitting in the low 90s and occasionally dropping even below that. He’s done with AAA, but also looks more like a depth piece.

5. Taylor Dollard (AAA, SEA)–After a great 2022 when he won the POTY award in the AA Texas League, Dollard had an injury-marred season where he started only 3 games before joining the IL in late April and did not pitch again. He has a deep pitch mix relying more upon control than stuff.

6. Justin Jarvis (AAA, NYM)–Another prospect traded during mid-season, Jarvis is currently the Mets’ No. 15 prospect. Admittedly, he has better projection than both Spence and McKendry, but his rather poor overall year refrains him from being looked with better eyes. Throws a FB, SL, SP combo and projects as a back-spot starter.

Long Shots

Successful players still in AA who may be a great pickup during the minor league phase of the draft. It would be surprising if they can already contribute to an MLB team.

7. Matt Sauer (AA, NYY)–Sauer had a great season with the Patriots, punching out 83 in only 68 frames while maintaining good control rates. He operates in the 91-94 mph range with a SL as his punch-out pitch. Had a bit rough AFL season.

8. Luis De Avila (AA, ATL)–My “paisano” has been a consistent minor league starter throughout the Braves’ system ever since signed, but has only pitched 3.2 innings in AAA. Still young, would be a great minor-league pick up if available.

9. Coleman Crow (AA, NYM)–Relying on good command, solid slider, and changeup, Crow underwent TJS this summer and will miss a big chunk of the next season. He had a 1.88 ERA in 4 starts before going to surgery.

Honourable Mentions

These players have intriguing raw tools, but need more sustained success in the minors to be considered.

10. Chih-Jung Liu (AA, BOS)–Liu has yet to debut in AAA, but had a solid season for the Sea Dogs. He possesses a good FB/SL combo with a CH and is now throwing a splitter consistently. Has a good ceiling, but is not yet MLB-ready.

11. Cole Wilcox (AA, TB)–Tampa Bay's 11th-ranked prospect is for sure well-known by Peter Bendix. He is a 6’5” righty with a FB/SL duet and below-average control. He had 106.1 innings in AA this season and needs to improve his long-ball proclivity.

12. Angel Bastardo (AA, BOS)–Another Portland Sea Dog, Angel gets good reviews for raw stuff, but lacks consistency. His best offerings are a mid-90s FB, CH, and CV. Projects as a starter.

With two open spots on the roster, there is a good chance that the Fish catch one player in the draft. Which pitcher do you think has a better chance or profile to join Miami?

Comments are much appreciated.

Photo of Misael Tamarez courtesy of Sugar Land Space Cowboys