Marlins Trade Targets: Michael Lorenzen

The Miami Marlins have exceeded expectations so far in 2023. However, to sustain this (and to better position themselves for perennial postseason contention), they’ll likely need to acquire help from outside the organization. Leading up to the August 1 MLB trade deadline, Fish On First will profile potentially attainable players who would fit with what the Fish are building.

Detroit Tigers right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen is one of the best players available as the 2023 trade deadline approaches. Lorenzen is posting a 3.49 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 6.79 K/9 and a 2.32 BB/9 through 100.2 IP. That production got him his first career All-Star selection.

Lorenzen has a deep pitch mix—Statcast has credited him with throwing seven different pitch types this season. His five main offerings are a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, sinker and sweeper. The four-seamer has been his most valuable pitch overall with a .175 batting average against and 31 strikeouts. Compared to the other starting pitchers who we have covered in this article series (Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman), Lorenzen has higher fastball velocity.

However, Lorenzen is riskier than Montgomery or Stroman. He has already thrown more innings than in any other MLB season since his rookie year of 2015 because his original team, the Cincinnati Reds, used him mainly as a reliever. He is also benefiting from the lowest BABIP of his career.

With that being said, Lorenzen has been lights out since the All-Star break with no runs allowed in his last three starts. During his last outing against the Kansas City Royals, he matched a season high by going seven innings.

Lorenzen's bullpen background is not necessarily a bad thing. If Eury Pérez and Trevor Rogers make their way back to the big leagues as starters late in the season, the 31-year-old could contribute out of the 'pen in a role that he's familiar with (269 career relief appearances). After all, the Marlins are thin on quality right-handed relievers right now.

Availability

The Tigers currently find themselves with a 45-54 record. Although they are a third-place team just like the Marlins, the Tigers are a lot farther back of the nearest playoff spot and don't have the same pressure to compete this season. With Lorenzen performing well and being a pending free agent, he is their most obvious trade chip.

MLB.com's Jon Morosi reports that the Tampa Bay Rays and Houston Astros have shown interest in acquiring Lorenzen.

Player Movement

Lorenzen's well-timed scoreless streak and the expected widespread interest in him around the league would require Miami to give up at least one notable prospect to obtain him. There's only about $2.8 million of salary still owed to him after the deadline.

Young right-hander Karson Milbrandt would make sense as a centerpiece. The 19-year-old has already reached the High-A level. Overall this season, he has a 5.11 ERA in 16 starts (68.2 IP). As Craig Mish said on State of the Fish, Milbrandt is drawing a lot of interest from other teams.

Along with Milbrandt, the Marlins should be willing to give up one of their Triple-A hitters who are being blocked from big league playing time such as Peyton Burdick or Jordan Groshans. They'll get more of an opportunity with a rebuilding team, plus that would help the Marlins with 40-man roster flexibility.